Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
